Sequential Games and Looking Ahead
Key concepts about game trees, backward induction, and designing lookahead depth.
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Questions Covered in This Set
10 cards to master
Sequential game
A game where players move in turns, so later players can see earlier moves before deciding.
Game tree (extensive form)
A diagram of a sequential game: nodes are decision points labeled by player, edges are moves, and leaves are endings with payoffs.
Backward induction
Solving a game by starting at the leaves and working upward, replacing each decision node with the value of the move that player would actually choose.
Subgame perfect equilibrium
The equilibrium path produced by backward induction, where every player plays optimally at every decision point.
Why does the Nim example (15 stones, take 1–3) show a 'solved' game?
Leaving a multiple of 4 always wins, so the first player takes 3 and wins forever after — one paragraph of analysis destroys the game.
What makes a choice in a sequential game a 'fake choice'?
If the opponent's response would be identical no matter what you pick, your decision doesn't matter.
Three tools to keep lookahead valuable
Widen the tree (big branching factor), inject hidden information or chance, or deliberately shorten the horizon.
Lookahead depth
The number of plies (single moves) a competent player must simulate to play well — a design parameter you choose.
Effect of a chance node on planning
It replaces certainty with probability, so players compute expected values instead of exact outcomes.
Analysis paralysis
When deep planning options cause a player to freeze, stalling the whole group and eating table time.