Balancing With Numbers

The average result of a random outcome, weighted by probability: EV = Σ (probability × payoff).

(2/6 × 6) + (4/6 × 1) = 2 + 0.667 ≈ 2.67 damage.

Players pay for excitement and for swing potential when losing; variance has value of its own, so it can be priced in.

The player who is ahead wants low variance; the player behind wants high variance — so variance is a strategic axis, not just a balance knob.

Multiply the payoff by the real trigger rate observed in playtests (e.g., 60% × 4 = 2.4 gold).

Assuming a condition fires ~80% of the time when the true rate is much lower (e.g., 35%), which quietly makes a card dead.

A pricing formula fitted to your own game that converts effects into a reference unit, giving every card a sanity-check price.

It gives more value than its cost implies (e.g., cost 4 for 3 VP prices at 6.0) — strictly efficient and likely an auto-include.

Non-linearity (diminishing returns or combo thresholds, e.g., value = n^0.9) and tempo discounting (10–20% less value per turn of delay).

Comparative stats like average turns, min/max, and spread — e.g., 2d6 vs a movement deck both have EV 7 but different spread, which is what players feel as luck.